Radar Lab
What 16 years of Bitcoin, four centuries of crashes, the sky and the headlines of the day say, tested against what actually happened. Every number here is measured, and anything that did not beat luck is marked that way.
Bitcoin forecast
Chance Bitcoin is higher than $74,997 (close of 2026-11-10). The model was tested on every year from 2016 without seeing it first.
About the same as guessing the average. Treat the number as a lean, not a call.
- Right on the direction56.5% of 3,960 test days
- Always saying "up" would have been right54.1%
- Skill vs guessing the average0.2%
- Bitcoin was higher 7 days later54.1% of all days
- Moon and numbers added skillNo, so they are left out
Leans most on: vs 200-day average, cycle cos, move 30d, below all-time high
When it said X%, how often was it right?
| It said | Days | Actually higher |
|---|---|---|
| 30-40% | 117 | 34.2% |
| 40-50% | 1226 | 47.6% |
| 50-60% | 1202 | 56.7% |
| 60-70% | 894 | 59.4% |
| 70-80% | 451 | 59.9% |
| 80-90% | 70 | 52.9% |
Slightly better than guessing the average on years it never saw. A small edge, not a sure thing.
- Right on the direction59.9% of 3,937 test days
- Always saying "up" would have been right57.6%
- Skill vs guessing the average1.6%
- Bitcoin was higher 30 days later56.6% of all days
- Moon and numbers added skillNo, so they are left out
Leans most on: vs 200-day average, cycle cos, move 30d, below all-time high
When it said X%, how often was it right?
| It said | Days | Actually higher |
|---|---|---|
| 20-30% | 33 | 18.2% |
| 30-40% | 375 | 45.3% |
| 40-50% | 957 | 48.2% |
| 50-60% | 686 | 51.9% |
| 60-70% | 537 | 63.1% |
| 70-80% | 647 | 68.6% |
| 80-90% | 386 | 64% |
Cosmic Lab
- New moon (1.6% lit)
- Sun in Scorpio
- Day number 4
- Mercury retrograde
- Venus retrograde
- Bitcoin price number 9
What Bitcoin did over the next 7 days on days like today (all days: average +2.56%, higher 53.9% of the time):
- Moon phase: New moon average +2.90%, higher 52.4% of 743 days no real edge
- Mercury retrograde: Yes average +2.62%, higher 55.7% of 1,148 days no real edge
- Venus retrograde: Yes average +1.55%, higher 43.9% of 453 days no real edge
- Mars retrograde: No average +2.70%, higher 53.8% of 5,409 days no real edge
- Day number (numerology): 4 average +4.00%, higher 53.8% of 357 days no real edge
- Sun sign: Scorpio average +4.22%, higher 56.3% of 490 days no real edge
Every day from 2010-08-18 to 2026-11-10 (5,929 days), grouped by the sky and the numbers, then checked against what Bitcoin did next. Each group is compared with all other days. The chance it is luck comes from sliding the day labels along the calendar 400 times, then is multiplied by the number of groups tried. A pattern must also point the same way before and after 2019.
Bitcoin over the next day
Moon phase No real edge
| Group | Days | Average move | Higher | vs other days | Chance it is luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New moon | 746 | +0.38% | 49.5% | +0.05% | 100% |
| Waxing crescent | 733 | +0.16% | 53.2% | -0.21% | 100% |
| First quarter | 743 | +0.65% | 50.9% | +0.36% | 10% |
| Waxing gibbous | 739 | +0.16% | 50.1% | -0.21% | 100% |
| Full moon | 740 | +0.39% | 51.8% | +0.06% | 100% |
| Waning gibbous | 745 | +0.15% | 51.7% | -0.22% | 100% |
| Last quarter | 737 | +0.39% | 52.6% | +0.05% | 100% |
| Waning crescent | 745 | +0.44% | 49.9% | +0.11% | 100% |
Mercury retrograde No real edge
| Group | Days | Average move | Higher | vs other days | Chance it is luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 4,774 | +0.36% | 51.2% | +0.11% | 100% |
| Yes | 1,154 | +0.25% | 51% | -0.11% | 100% |
Venus retrograde No real edge
| Group | Days | Average move | Higher | vs other days | Chance it is luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 5,469 | +0.34% | 51.4% | -0.04% | 100% |
| Yes | 459 | +0.38% | 49.2% | +0.04% | 100% |
Mars retrograde No real edge
| Group | Days | Average move | Higher | vs other days | Chance it is luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 5,415 | +0.36% | 51.2% | +0.24% | 100% |
| Yes | 513 | +0.13% | 51.3% | -0.24% | 100% |
Day number (numerology) Pattern found
| Group | Days | Average move | Higher | vs other days | Chance it is luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 659 | +0.23% | 50.4% | -0.12% | 100% |
| 2 | 410 | +0.13% | 51.5% | -0.22% | 100% |
| 3 | 661 | +0.40% | 50.2% | +0.07% | 100% |
| 4 | 357 | +0.30% | 49.6% | -0.04% | 100% |
| 5 | 656 | +0.03% | 50% | -0.35% | 36% |
| 6 | 657 | +0.25% | 53.1% | -0.10% | 100% |
| 7 | 657 | +0.24% | 51.9% | -0.11% | 100% |
| 8 | 659 | +0.79% | 54.6% | +0.51% | 3% |
| 9 | 659 | +0.51% | 48.9% | +0.19% | 100% |
| 11 | 250 | +0.61% | 53.2% | +0.28% | 100% |
| 22 | 303 | +0.25% | 49.5% | -0.10% | 100% |
Sun sign No real edge
| Group | Days | Average move | Higher | vs other days | Chance it is luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aries | 488 | +0.40% | 53.5% | +0.06% | 100% |
| Taurus | 496 | +0.64% | 53.8% | +0.33% | 100% |
| Gemini | 500 | +0.37% | 54.8% | +0.03% | 100% |
| Cancer | 504 | +0.16% | 51% | -0.20% | 100% |
| Leo | 505 | +0.12% | 47.9% | -0.24% | 100% |
| Virgo | 527 | -0.05% | 46.9% | -0.43% | 100% |
| Libra | 516 | +0.42% | 48.4% | +0.08% | 100% |
| Scorpio | 496 | +0.59% | 51% | +0.28% | 100% |
| Sagittarius | 472 | +0.44% | 53.6% | +0.11% | 100% |
| Capricorn | 472 | +0.38% | 50.8% | +0.05% | 100% |
| Aquarius | 473 | +0.43% | 51.6% | +0.10% | 100% |
| Pisces | 479 | +0.21% | 51.6% | -0.14% | 100% |
Bitcoin over the next 7 days
Moon phase No real edge
| Group | Days | Average move | Higher | vs other days | Chance it is luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New moon | 743 | +2.90% | 52.4% | +0.38% | 100% |
| Waxing crescent | 733 | +2.87% | 54.7% | +0.35% | 100% |
| First quarter | 743 | +2.56% | 56.5% | 0.00% | 100% |
| Waxing gibbous | 739 | +1.64% | 55.2% | -1.05% | 80% |
| Full moon | 740 | +2.00% | 52.7% | -0.65% | 100% |
| Waning gibbous | 745 | +2.43% | 53% | -0.15% | 100% |
| Last quarter | 737 | +3.25% | 53.6% | +0.78% | 100% |
| Waning crescent | 742 | +2.86% | 52.8% | +0.34% | 100% |
Mercury retrograde No real edge
| Group | Days | Average move | Higher | vs other days | Chance it is luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 4,774 | +2.55% | 53.4% | -0.07% | 100% |
| Yes | 1,148 | +2.62% | 55.7% | +0.07% | 100% |
Venus retrograde No real edge
| Group | Days | Average move | Higher | vs other days | Chance it is luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 5,469 | +2.65% | 54.7% | +1.10% | 100% |
| Yes | 453 | +1.55% | 43.9% | -1.10% | 100% |
Mars retrograde No real edge
| Group | Days | Average move | Higher | vs other days | Chance it is luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 5,409 | +2.70% | 53.8% | +1.62% | 100% |
| Yes | 513 | +1.08% | 55% | -1.62% | 100% |
Day number (numerology) No real edge
| Group | Days | Average move | Higher | vs other days | Chance it is luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 658 | +1.90% | 52.7% | -0.74% | 41% |
| 2 | 409 | +1.63% | 55.7% | -1.01% | 100% |
| 3 | 660 | +2.93% | 55.8% | +0.42% | 100% |
| 4 | 357 | +4.00% | 53.8% | +1.53% | 63% |
| 5 | 656 | +2.20% | 52% | -0.41% | 100% |
| 6 | 657 | +2.62% | 51.9% | +0.07% | 100% |
| 7 | 656 | +2.86% | 52.4% | +0.33% | 100% |
| 8 | 658 | +2.88% | 54.4% | +0.36% | 100% |
| 9 | 658 | +2.16% | 54.7% | -0.45% | 100% |
| 11 | 250 | +4.73% | 59.2% | +2.26% | 22% |
| 22 | 303 | +1.19% | 53.8% | -1.45% | 100% |
Sun sign No real edge
| Group | Days | Average move | Higher | vs other days | Chance it is luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aries | 488 | +3.81% | 59.8% | +1.36% | 100% |
| Taurus | 496 | +4.76% | 56.9% | +2.39% | 100% |
| Gemini | 500 | +2.78% | 50% | +0.24% | 100% |
| Cancer | 504 | +1.53% | 54% | -1.13% | 100% |
| Leo | 505 | +0.63% | 47.1% | -2.11% | 100% |
| Virgo | 527 | -1.03% | 44.2% | -3.94% | 27% |
| Libra | 516 | +4.20% | 58.7% | +1.79% | 100% |
| Scorpio | 490 | +4.22% | 56.3% | +1.81% | 100% |
| Sagittarius | 472 | +2.86% | 59.5% | +0.32% | 100% |
| Capricorn | 472 | +2.48% | 54% | -0.09% | 100% |
| Aquarius | 473 | +3.25% | 55.8% | +0.74% | 100% |
| Pisces | 479 | +1.52% | 50.9% | -1.13% | 100% |
Bitcoin since 2010, and every crash before it
Log scale, one point a week. Dashed lines are the halvings, when new Bitcoin supply is cut in half. Next one estimated around 2028-04-15.
This cycle against the last ones
Price as a multiple of the price on halving day. Today, 934 days in, Bitcoin is at 1.175x its halving-day price. After the 2012 halving it was 19.998x at this point. After the 2016 halving it was 5.396x at this point. After the 2020 halving it was 1.876x at this point. Each finished cycle so far peaked lower than the one before it.
- 2012 cycle peaked at 90.95x, 372 days after the halving (2013-12-05)
- 2016 cycle peaked at 29.08x, 526 days after the halving (2017-12-17)
- 2020 cycle peaked at 8.35x, 1,403 days after the halving (2024-03-14)
- 2024 cycle peaked at 1.96x, 535 days after the halving (2025-10-07)
Every time Bitcoin lost half or more
| Peak | Bottom | Drop | Days falling | Days to a new high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-09-16$0.15 | 2010-09-17$0.06 | -60.0% | 1 | 39 |
| 2010-11-08$0.47 | 2010-12-11$0.21 | -55.3% | 33 | 84 |
| 2011-06-11$33.80 | 2011-11-22$2.30 | -93.2% | 164 | 630 |
| 2013-04-10$231.05 | 2013-04-17$68.00 | -70.6% | 7 | 210 |
| 2013-12-05$1,137 | 2015-01-15$172.00 | -84.9% | 406 | 1,177 |
| 2017-12-17$19,280 | 2018-12-16$3,232 | -83.2% | 364 | 1,080 |
| 2021-04-14$63,554 | 2021-07-21$29,790 | -53.1% | 98 | 189 |
| 2021-11-09$67,562 | 2022-11-22$15,760 | -76.7% | 378 | 847 |
| 2025-10-07$124,777 | 2026-07-01$58,534 | -53.1% | 267 | Not yet |
How markets have collapsed, over and over
- Tulip mania 1636-11 to 1637-02, Dutch tulip bulb contracts
Buyers stopped turning up at a bulb auction in Haarlem. A price built on resale to the next buyer collapses the day new buyers stop coming.
- South Sea Bubble 1720-06 to 1720-12, South Sea Company shares, -80.0%
Insiders sold, credit dried up and the Bubble Act backfired. Easy credit and a hot story pull everyone in late, right before insiders get out.
- Panic of 1873 1873-09 to 1879-03, US railroads and banks
Jay Cooke and Company failed on railroad bonds. Over-built infrastructure financed with debt breaks when one big lender fails.
- Panic of 1907 1906-01 to 1907-11, US banks and stocks, -49.0%
A failed attempt to corner copper led to runs on trust companies. Lightly regulated lenders spread a single bad bet across the whole system.
- The Great Crash and Depression 1929-09-03 to 1932-07-08, Dow Jones Industrial Average, -89.0%
Stocks bought on margin, then a selling wave in October 1929. Leverage turns a sell-off into forced selling, and forced selling feeds on itself.
- 1973 to 1974 bear market 1973-01-11 to 1974-10-03, S&P 500, -48.0%
Oil embargo, inflation and the end of the gold-backed dollar. An energy shock plus high inflation can grind markets down for nearly two years.
- Black Monday 1987-10-19, Dow Jones Industrial Average, -22.6%
Program trading and portfolio insurance selling into a falling market. Automated selling can crash a market in a day with no news at all.
- Japan bubble burst 1989-12-29 to 2003-04-28, Nikkei 225, -80.0%
The Bank of Japan raised rates into a land and stock bubble. A bubble can take decades to recover from. The Nikkei did not regain its 1989 peak until 2024.
- Asian financial crisis 1997-07 to 1998-09, Asian currencies and stocks
Thailand let the baht float after running out of reserves. Borrowing in dollars against local income breaks when the local currency falls.
- Dot-com crash 2000-03-10 to 2002-10-09, Nasdaq Composite, -78.0%
Profitless internet companies ran out of money as rates rose. A real technology can still be a terrible investment at the wrong price.
- Global financial crisis 2007-10-09 to 2009-03-09, S&P 500, -57.0%
Subprime mortgages, then the failure of Lehman Brothers. Hidden leverage in 'safe' assets is the most dangerous kind.
- Mt. Gox collapse 2013-12-04 to 2015-01-14, Bitcoin, -86.0%
The biggest Bitcoin exchange lost customer coins and shut down. Coins on an exchange are a promise from the exchange, not coins you hold.
- 2018 crypto winter 2017-12-17 to 2018-12-15, Bitcoin, -84.0%
The ICO bubble burst after the 2017 run. Every Bitcoin cycle so far has given back most of its peak within a year.
- COVID crash 2020-02-19 to 2020-03-23, S&P 500, -34.0%
The pandemic shut the world economy down. The fastest crashes can also have the fastest recoveries when central banks flood money in.
- 2022 crypto collapse 2021-11-10 to 2022-11-21, Bitcoin, -77.0%
Rate hikes, then Terra/Luna in May and FTX in November. When money gets expensive, the most speculative assets fall first and furthest.
- 2022 rate shock 2022-01-03 to 2022-10-12, S&P 500, -25.0%
The fastest Fed rate hikes in forty years. Inflation forces central banks to hike, and hikes reprice everything.
- Prices rising mostly because people expect to resell higher
- Record borrowing to buy (margin debt, leverage, easy credit)
- Central banks raising rates after a long stretch of cheap money
- A big lender, exchange or fund failing or freezing withdrawals
- Everyone you know talking about getting rich from the same thing
Narratives heating up
The stories markets are telling, counted across news, X, Reddit, Hacker News and company news. 4,030 headlines and posts read over the last 8 days. Heat compares the last 24 hours with an average day the week before. The radar is still building that week of history, so for now this shows raw counts.
- @davidonchainx thought we were finally done with the whole memecoin bs x
- 📡 Tracking airdrops? Explore Moonbirds $BIRB on Solana Explore this airdrop, its token and the wider crypto coin and memecoin ecosystem Chain: Solana CA=G7vQWurMkMMm2dU3iZpXYFTHT9Biio4F4gZCrwFpKNwG ht x
- 🧭 Take a look at Finance Inu $FI on Solana Explore this airdrop token in the crypto coin and memecoin world Chain: Solana CA=4QDPF5TtNAKtU5p5pvcq9h9b44nRSikRzNrKzsUfLoat https://t.co/0UMXRr7bxV x
- A new opportunity for those journeying with @ryfinite ! 🚀 The Ryfinite Ambassador Program has officially launched, offering a new way to earn $USDT and $ETH for holders of a Ryfinite Passport. What st x
- 🎁 Discover the on-chain details behind usdc is cool $COOL on Arc Explore this airdrop token in the crypto coin and memecoin world Chain: Arc CA=0xEb64987643db71c76b2a2BE7E723DECC995E5b37 https://t.co/ x
- Money is flowing into $BTC and $USDT here! $ETH $SOL are seeing outflows, and $OTHERS is barely holding! https://t.co/Jp3Fi2t7OC x
- Railtown AI Expands Apple Developer Ecosystem with Open-Source Swift Framework for Private On-Device AI Agents and Local Knowledge Bases finnhub
- Is Arm Stock a Buy on the Dip as Agentic AI Opportunity Emerges? finnhub
- AI Agents Are “an Existential Risk to DoorDash”? Seriously? I’ll Take the Under finnhub
- @EthereanVibin 1) Midterms Finished 2) Iran War de-escalates 3) Oil, DXY, Inflation, Front-end trajectory down 4) Financial conditions ease 5) Global Liquidity follows 6) Tech/Crypto Rallies If you ca x
- @Buckeye__Mike Let's see, the pandemic in 2020 led to a record stock market crash, record unemployment, and more American deaths than any war in history in just one year So yes you fucking inbred, hil x
- @AshCrypto Bitcoin $BTC is dumping for any news in this world for who’s cheat his wife, who loss in election, who hacked anything,who wars in ground,who post in X , who got baby, who died in war, ever x
- Elon Musk's Cybertruck pivot highlights the founder-CEO advantage finnhub
- $URA $URA is up 6.18% to $34.34. Buyers confirmed a fresh pivot with force. Friday was an inside range, and today confirms a pivot by closing above Thursday's mother bar. An inside range is a coiled p x
- 13,597 BTC offloaded. MARA sold down a massive stack to clear $750M in debt as it ramps up its AI pivot. Even with a $634M quarterly profit, public miners are choosing clean balance sheets over diamon x
Search demand for business ideas
Monthly Google searches in the US, what advertisers pay per click (money in the niche), and the last 12 months of interest. Updated weekly.
| Idea | Searches a month | Cost per click | Last 3 months vs 3 before | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai receptionist | 49,500 | $10.47 | +3,037.4% | |
| ugc creator | 40,500 | $1.15 | +29.6% | |
| print on demand | 22,200 | $1.81 | 0.0% | |
| pressure washing business | 5,400 | $1.56 | -5.4% | |
| newsletter business | 880 | $1.00 | -6.5% | |
| micro saas | 1,000 | $2.41 | -12.7% | |
| saas | 90,500 | $0.88 | -18.2% | |
| faceless youtube | 590 | $0.6 | -23.1% | |
| dropshipping | 165,000 | $2.20 | -24.1% | |
| course creation | 390 | $10.15 | -25.5% | |
| ai agents | 49,500 | $6.59 | -25.9% | |
| home care business | 4,400 | $2.47 | -34.3% | |
| ai automation agency | 4,400 | $5.94 | -39.8% | |
| vibe coding | 110,000 | $3.02 | -41.8% | |
| mobile app business | 170 | $10.01 | -64.8% |
Research and alerts, not financial advice. Scores rank what is worth a look; they are not a chance of profit. New tokens and fast movers can lose most of their value quickly. Astrology and numerology are shown because they are tested here, not because they are proven.
